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  • The Forward - Issue 01: BHP's Scope 3 problem

The Forward - Issue 01: BHP's Scope 3 problem

Why the world's biggest miner can't escape its customers' emissions

Bronwyn Campbell
Bronwyn Campbell

Apr 14, 2026

The Forward
by CFS Cantilever Future Solutions
Issue 01 — Launch Edition
14 April 2026
Mining & Resources · Climate Transition Action Plan
BHP Group — Scope 3 at scale, two years of Safeguard outperformance, and why the world's biggest miner can't escape its customers' emissions

We launch The Forward with a company that sits at the centre of Australia's climate reporting challenge — and whose sustainability report raises questions every mining, energy and construction executive should be thinking about.

BHP Group produces the iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper that the world's infrastructure is built from. Its Scope 3 emissions — released when customers turn BHP's products into steel, energy, and manufactured goods — are roughly 40 times larger than its Scope 1 and 2 combined. That arithmetic defines BHP's climate challenge, and its Climate Transition Action Plan.

⛏️

BHP Group — Annual Report 2025 & Climate Transition Action Plan 2024

Published September 2024 · 96 pages · Subject to shareholder advisory vote · Aligned with Paris Agreement 1.5°C pathway for operated assets; 2°C for value chain (Scope 3).

Mining & Resources ASRS Group 1 Shareholder Vote

Three passages worth your attention

Annotated with plain-English context and our take on what it means for you

Passage 01 — The Scope 3 Scale Problem

"Our Scope 3 Category 11 emissions — those arising from the processing and use of our products by customers — represent approximately 96% of our total value chain emissions. For steelmaking coal alone, the combustion of our product by customers generates emissions we estimate at around 380 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent annually."

— BHP Climate Transition Action Plan 2024, p. 22
Our Take

This single statistic reframes the entire BHP climate conversation. 380 million tonnes from steelmaking coal customers alone is equivalent to around 85% of Australia's total annual national emissions (~446Mt CO₂-e as of 2024). BHP doesn't burn this coal — its customers do. But under Scope 3 accounting, it sits on BHP's ledger.

This is the central tension in mining company climate reporting: BHP can achieve net zero in its own operations while its products continue generating emissions at a national scale. The question is whether that constitutes climate leadership or climate accounting.

💡 Plain English: BHP's own operations emit roughly 10 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. Its customers emitting BHP's products emit roughly 40 times that. Under mandatory reporting, BHP must now disclose this — and explain what it's doing about it.
Passage 02 — The Steelmaking Coal Conundrum

"BHP has set a goal to maintain steelmaking coal production broadly flat through to at least 2030, while investing in partnerships to accelerate green steel technology development. We do not believe rapid divestment of steelmaking coal assets is consistent with a responsible energy transition."

— BHP Climate Transition Action Plan 2024, p. 38
Our Take

This is BHP's most contested position. The argument is logical: if BHP sells its coal mines, someone else buys them — likely with less capital, weaker environmental standards, and less incentive to invest in green steel R&D. The emissions don't disappear; they just move off BHP's books.

Critics counter that maintaining production "broadly flat" still locks in decades of Scope 3 emissions, and that green steel partnerships — while genuine — are unlikely to achieve commercial scale before 2035. Both arguments have merit. What has shifted in FY2025 is the pace of BHP's own bets: the NeoSmelt consortium (electric smelting furnace for ironmaking) and a CCUS Hub Study with major Asian steelmakers were both announced in 2025, signalling BHP is accelerating its green steel investment beyond R&D into pre-feasibility. It's not enough to resolve the Scope 3 tension — but it narrows the gap between rhetoric and action.

⚠️ Plain English: BHP is keeping its coal business at current levels while betting that the steel industry will eventually figure out how to make green steel. Whether that's responsible stewardship or a justification for business-as-usual depends on how quickly you think the steel transition will happen.
Passage 03 — The Safeguard Mechanism Impact

"The Australian Government's reformed Safeguard Mechanism requires BHP's Australian operations to reduce Scope 1 emissions intensity by approximately 4.9% per year through to 2030. BHP's Australian Scope 1 emissions declined 8% in FY2024, ahead of this trajectory, primarily through electrification of mining equipment and methane capture at our Queensland coal operations."

— BHP Annual Report 2025, Operating and Financial Review 9.8 – Climate change
Our Take

Two consecutive years of outperformance against the Safeguard Mechanism trajectory — 8% in FY2024, 5% in FY2025 — is a signal worth reading carefully. BHP's reductions are being driven by electrification of mining equipment and methane capture at Queensland coal operations: both capital-intensive interventions that required investment decisions made years earlier.

For smaller mining operators who haven't yet engaged seriously with Safeguard Mechanism compliance, this is the key lesson: the 4.9% annual intensity reduction is achievable, but it requires capital decisions made now, not in 2028. The window to get ahead of the trajectory — rather than scrambling to catch up — is closing.

🔺 Plain English: BHP has now cut its operational emissions two years in a row — down 8% in FY2024, down another 5% in FY2025. The mechanism forcing this is Australia's Safeguard Mechanism. The lesson for every mining company in Australia: this trajectory is achievable, but only if you start investing now.

Quick Scorecard — BHP Annual Report 2025 & CTAP 2024 CFS Assessment
Scope 1 & 2 target credibility
✓ Strong
Scope 3 strategy coherence
△ Contested
Safeguard Mechanism compliance trajectory
✓ Ahead of target
Green technology investment commitment
△ Developing
Transparency on steelmaking coal rationale
✓ Candid
Nature & biodiversity disclosure
△ Early

Glossary — terms used this week
Scope 1, 2 & 3 Emissions
The three categories of greenhouse gas emissions under the GHG Protocol. Scope 1 covers direct emissions from sources a company owns or controls (e.g. diesel burned in BHP's own mining equipment). Scope 2 covers indirect emissions from purchased electricity and energy. Scope 3 covers all other indirect emissions across the value chain — including what happens when customers use the products a company sells. For BHP, Scope 3 represents around 96% of its total emissions footprint.
Scope 3 Category 11 — Use of Sold Products
The GHG Protocol's category for emissions released when customers use (burn, process, or consume) products sold by the reporting company. For fossil fuel and materials producers, this is typically the dominant Scope 3 category by far.
Safeguard Mechanism
Australia's industrial emissions policy requiring the ~200 largest industrial emitters (above 100,000t CO₂-e/year) to keep net emissions at or below a declining baseline. Reformed in 2023 to include a 4.9% annual intensity reduction trajectory to 2030.
Climate Transition Action Plan (CTAP)
A company's documented strategy for managing climate-related risks and aligning operations with climate goals. Under ASRS, large companies must disclose their transition plans. BHP's CTAP is also put to an advisory shareholder vote — a governance practice other large emitters may face pressure to adopt.
Green Steel
Steel produced using low or zero-carbon processes — primarily hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron ore (replacing coking coal) or electric arc furnaces using recycled steel with renewable electricity. Currently more expensive than conventional steel; commercial-scale deployment expected from the early 2030s.

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This month at CFS — Social Risk Assessment

BHP's Scope 3 challenge is also a social licence challenge — communities and investors are asking harder questions about the value chain. If your organisation needs help identifying, quantifying, and managing ESG risks that affect project approvals, financing, and long-term viability, get in touch by emailing Bronwyn directly.

Should mining companies be held responsible for the emissions released when customers use their products?

  • Yes - if you extract it and sell it, you're part of the problem
  • Partially - miners should invest in clean alternatives but can't control customer choices
  • No - responsibility lies with the companies and consumers burning fossil fuels
  • The question is wrong — the real issue is the pace of the energy transition

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